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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.