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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."